Incorporating this local complexity into a global analysis requires a large amount of local port-specific data, as well as incorporating a variety of port-specific hazards and failure mechanisms into a single risk framework. In fact, hazardous impacts to critical land-side infrastructure are identified as a key bottleneck for various ports, both in the developing and developed world 10, 13, 15, 16. rail, road and electricity), damages to which can halt port operations even if the port itself is not damaged. cranes, terminals), ports are embedded in local critical infrastructure networks (e.g. Apart from impacts to the port assets themselves (e.g. operational disruptions due to weather extremes) and low-probability but high-impact events (e.g. The risk profile of the port consists of both high-probability but low-impact events (e.g. First, ports can be damaged or disrupted by several different hazards which impact the port’s physical infrastructure and operations in different ways, making risk analysis complex. On the other hand, a number of detailed (asset-level) port risk analyses, that include the different ways in which a port may be disrupted, have been performed, but only on a local scale covering one or a small subset of ports 10, 13, 14.ĭespite the amount of work that has been done, we identified several remaining challenges to scaling up detailed risk analysis to a global scale. terminals, road, rail) are not included, nor the associated disruption pathways of port downtime and the losses associated with that (e.g. Although useful for analysing the frequency of occurrence of a single hazard or multiple hazards, these studies fail to quantify the economic damages to physical assets since asset locations (e.g. On the one hand, previous large-scale (continent or global) analyses have mainly looked at the exposure of ports to coastal flooding 12 or multiple operational thresholds from climate extremes 9, with ports represented as single points. However, the academic literature so far has inadequately addressed this. Since ports form nodes in global networks of maritime supply chains, it is essential to take a global perspective to accurately estimate the risks from catastrophic port disruptions. Given their economic importance and the large sums of money invested in port construction and operations from the private sector (around 92 USD billion since 1990 in low and middle-income countries alone 8), combined with the predicted increase in natural hazard risk due to climate change 9, 10 and near tripling of maritime trade by 2050 11, detailed risk information at a global scale is essential to guide port infrastructure planning and investments and manage supply-chain risks. The impacts of port disruptions are often felt beyond the port boundaries, as port closures can result in wider economic losses through maritime transport and global supply-chain networks that depend on ports’ trade facilitation function 2, 6, 7. For instance, Hurricane Ike (2008) caused an estimated 2.4 USD billion worth of damages to ports in Texas 4, whereas the 2013–2014 floods in the United Kingdom damaged port infrastructure worth 1.8 GBP million 5. extreme waves, cyclones, and earthquakes). However, their strategic location along rivers and low-lying coastal areas makes them exposed to the impacts of climate extremes and natural disasters (e.g. Ports are essential for the well-functioning of economies and global supply-chains 1, 2, 3. Our result underline that port resilience is determined by various critical factors, such as engineering standards, operational thresholds, recovery duration, that vary widely across ports, requiring tailored solutions to improve port resilience. In addition, 63.1 USD bn of trade is at-risk every year, with trade risk as a fraction of total trade being particularly high in Small Island Developing States. Globally, port-specific risk totals 7.5 USD bn per year, with 32% of the risk attributed to tropical cyclone impacts. We find that 86% majority of ports are exposed to more than three hazards. port-specific risk) and maritime trade flows at-risk (i.e. Here, we perform an asset-level risk analysis of global port infrastructure from multiple hazards, quantifying the risk to physical asset damages and logistics services (i.e. Despite their economic importance, the risk that ports face from multiple natural hazards has not yet been monetised on a global scale.
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